Hernando, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

341
FXUS64 KMEG 111058
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
558 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 554 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- Warm and humid conditions are expected across the Mid-South,
  with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and heat
  index values in the low 100s.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorms chances continue with a 30%
  to 50% chance each day generally in the afternoon. A few storms
  could produce heavy rainfall and / or strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Another pleasant early morning across the Mid-South under a clear
sky with temps currently in the mid to upper 70s. Will see some
additional cooling over the next few hours with dew point
depressions falling along the TN River and NE MS. Coupled with
light winds and the clear conditions, some patchy fog may develop
over the next few hours in these locations. However, do not expect
coverage to be as dense or widespread as yesterday morning. Any
fog that develops through sunrise will quickly mix out thereafter.

Our typical summertime pattern will continue once again today,
with a high pressure currently over the Gulf. Southerly winds will
allow an influx of moisture to remain over the region, with
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances each afternoon. Chances
will max out in the 30 to 40% range this afternoon and Saturday
afternoon. High temperatures will generally remain in the low to
mid 90s through the weekend, with heat indices in the low 100s.
NBM guidance does have a few locations across eastern AR and the
MS Delta approaching 105 in the afternoons, but HREF and LREF
guidance keeps the probabilities of this less than 20%. Given the
uncertainty, have opted against any heat headlines for the time
being but conditions will need to be monitored over the next
several days.

A weak frontal boundary will approach the Mid-South on Sunday,
leading to slightly higher (40-50%) PoPs across the area. This
frontal boundary is expected to stall just to the north of the
Mid-South, likely keeping most of the severe threat to our north.
Will not rule out a strong storm or two as the boundary
approaches, but my confidence in this is very low. Into next week,
our overall weather pattern will remain largely the same with
little upper-level forcing. This will lead to daily, afternoon
thunderstorm chances with an isolated threat for heavy rain and
some strong wind gusts at times. High temperatures will likely
approach the mid 90s for some by mid-week as high pressure builds
through the region once again. With the higher temperatures, heat
headlines will likely be needed for at least some portion of the
area by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions continue across the area. Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA is
expected again in the afternoon, so have included PROB30 groupings
for MEM, MKL, and TUP. Conditions will clear after 01Z.
Southwesterly winds up to around 10 kts during the daytime will
fall back below 7 kts and remain south/southwest overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values
will remain above 40% through the period, with thunderstorm
chances each day.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CMA